Good morning.
Mainstream media, and social media, these days abound with news and views on the war in the Middle East. On the conflict Israel-US against Iran.
I will, myself, only say the following on the subject...
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Where is the end of the world...?
It should be here by now, judging by the "nihilist FB posting" I've been exposed to...
I mean, come on...
The war with Iran is half-baked, it is only done by air strikes... and to invade Iran is not even in the cards, not anywhere near feasible... and this is needed to topple Iran's regime.
The war will be limited to conventional air strikes... because, for invasion US manpower is needed, and even the US has too little of it these days... it aint 2003 now, the year of Iraqi Freedom... US had 130,000 in ground troops for this... since then the US army is reduced to such a size that major operations against a land like Iran is impossible...
OK, they could amass about 100,000 in ground forces for a major effort, even more... but where is the leadership...? Trump is no war president, bent on invading another land...
My prediction: this will be another grey area war, ending in nothing.
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Toppling Iraq, and even Libya in 2011, was doable. Libya, for its part, is very small (population 7 million). Syria, newly toppled, has 25 million. Iraq has 46 million -- but then it took massive US ground forces, and naval and air force concentration, to invade it in 2003. Iran, for its part, has a population of 92 million.
This land can't, in 2025, be invaded in old-school fashion...! The terrain is also an obstacle (mountainous high plateau making up the heartland).
As I said, the war effort will be limited to air strikes (aircraft, drones, missiles). They could of course send in special forces for sabotage. But that ain't enough to bring a country down. You must invade it.
As I see the war against Iran will not be another Iraq 2.0 operation. The energies are too low for that. Energies equal to "zeitgeist favoring major war effort".
This won't develop into major war.
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To topple Iran will only be possible with an inner upheaval. And as an enemy to count on that is rather naive.
US experts know this. Even under G. W. Bush as president an invasion of Iran was never attempted. Therefore this war will only peter out into nothingness, maybe negotiations.
And it ain't the end of the world, not in any way.
Related
No risk for major war
Astral War (2023)
In Swedish: Gulfkriget 1990-91
Pic by LS
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